Study — The Bilbo Golden Gate

The Bilbo Golden Gate:
momentum-confirmed triggers
complete almost instantly.

The Saty Phase Oscillator on the 60-minute timeframe changes the odds that a Golden Gate entry (at 38.2%) completes through 61.8%. Across 25 years of SPY data (2000–2025), extreme-zone PO readings shift completion from a ~62–65% baseline to ~71% (bull) and ~85–87% (bear).

Corrected & Restored — 2026-07-11

The original study had a confirmed look-ahead bug: 10m triggers were classified by the still-unfinished 1h candle's PO (up to 60 min of forward leakage). It was demoted 2026-04-26, the join was fixed the same day (only fully closed 1h bars visible at trigger time), and every number on this page is now from the corrected rerun. What changed: the bull High+Rising headline dropped 77.1% → 71.0%, bear Low+Falling 90.3% → 85.1%, samples roughly halved — and the mid-zone slope splits inverted, so PO slope in the mid zone carries no usable signal. Audit trail: audit-reruns/gg_bug_fix_results_2026-04-26.md.

01 — The Edge

The Golden Gate is the zone between the 38.2% and 61.8% ATR levels. It “fires” when price enters at 38.2% and “completes” when it reaches 61.8%. On average it completes 62.5% of the time (bull) and 65.4% (bear). That average moves — depending on what the last completed 60-minute Phase Oscillator bar showed at the moment the 38.2% level is hit.

71.0%

Bullish GG completion when
PO is High & Rising (vs 62.5% baseline)

85.1%

Bearish GG completion when
PO is Low & Falling (vs 65.4% baseline)

Bullish Golden Gate

60m Phase Oscillator	Overall	Within 1h	Samples

Bearish Golden Gate

60m Phase Oscillator	Overall	Within 1h	Samples

Reading this table: “PO High + Rising” means the last completed 60-minute Phase Oscillator bar was above 61.8 and increasing when the trigger fired. The edge lives in the extreme zones: bear low-zone ~85–87%, bull high-zone ~71–74%. In the mid zone, slope tells you nothing — the pre-fix “avoid counter-slope” buckets (bull Mid+Falling 51.6%, bear Mid+Rising 54.3%) were look-ahead artifacts that inverted to 63.0% and 69.6% after the fix. Note the extreme-zone setups are rarer than originally published (n=141–193 vs 268–388 pre-fix).

02 — The Speed

Completion rate only tells half the story. When the Bilbo conditions are met, the Golden Gate doesn't just complete more often — it completes on the same 10-minute candle the majority of the time. Price doesn't pause at the trigger. It blows through.

35.2min

Mean completion time
Bullish, PO High + Rising

25.2min

Mean completion time
Bearish, PO Low + Falling

54–66min

Mean completion time
Baseline (bear / bull)

Cumulative completion by time after trigger

Same bar = same 10-minute candle (the “0 min” row), and it matters for execution. 69% of completed bear Bilbos and 58% of completed bull Bilbos ran through the entire Golden Gate zone within the trigger candle itself. A resting order at the 38.2% level participates in those; an entry taken after watching the trigger bar close does not — and for late entries the honest completion odds are much closer to baseline. If you trade this, the order has to be waiting at the level.

10m vs 60m PO Comparison (corrected) Bilbo Continuation (corrected)